Lots of Regular People Still Use Palm Treos (Happily)

The biggest buzz out of the CES this year was the introduction (finally) of an update to the Palm Treo. Of course the Palm Pre is being compared to the most popular handhelds, the iPhone and the various Blackberry models. It is logical to compare them, since the people who enjoy discussing these things on our technology blogs are usually first adapters. They already have an iPhone or Blackberry, so it is a logical comparison.

But when we see sales growth for Smartphones, we see exactly that – sales. In other words, we see the NEW sales. I’ve searched and cannot find any comparable numbers for Smartphones already in use. I’m talking about the ones regular people use – the people who don’t count the days till their contract is up so they can buy a new one, or carry two handhelds with them, or pay full price because they must have the newest, or buy (or care) about unlocked products. Because I think a lot of people still use Treos. Way more than anyone realizes.

I read a great news story today about a carjacker being caught by the car’s owner. While drowning his sorrows with his friends after his car was stolen, he realized he left his phone in the car. His friends sent a text message to the phone detailing a place he should go where there would be women etc, so that it would appear to be sent to the car owner. The carjackers went to the location, and they were caught. There was a slideshow showing the phone (which was in a nice new BMW) – and what do you know. The phone was a Treo.

Yes I believe it. There are TONS of people out there who were married to the Palm OS when it first came out, either via Palm Pilot or Handspring or Treo, who just aren’t like us tech junkies. They are in a comfort zone and it does everything they need it to do, why switch? Even my husband, despite our kids and myself having nothing but iPhones and Blackberries, still carries his Treo.

Lots of regular people – smart people with great careers or people who like to buy upscale cars like BMWs just don’t care about the SDK (Software Developer Kit) or the variety of applications that will be available in the Palm App Store. They just want to keep using the ones they are using without having to give them up. A whole new learning curve is not worth it to many outside our circle of gadget junkies (like myself). But for a new PALM, they will probably make the switch. No data migration, no “how will I get my Palm stuff on an iPhone”, no matter how easy it would be. My husband would never leave his ePocrates medical application (drug interactions), still only available in its robust subscription form with Palm OS. Other than that, it’s about simple functions. Addresses, phone calls, text, maybe some pictures. He would never take the time to learn something new when the old technology works just fine thank you.

I would love to see the percentage of people still using Palms. I don’t know if such a thing exists, because we don’t know how many people have been hanging on to them happily. We only see new sales figures each year. I am disappointed that once again, they will have a 6-month exclusive with Sprint, which will prohibit widespread adaption quickly. But it will happen. I suspect the Pre will be a big hit.

Apple and Sony

As we know, this is the week of both Macworld and the CES (Consumer Electronics Show). One marks the end of an era, the final Macworld. In a style that is very…well…Apple, they’ve never exhibited at the CES. They had Macworld, where their cult following would line up religiously for the most anticipated Keynote speech of the technology year. The last Keynote speech went on today without much fanfare. Phil Schiller, in the absence of Steve Jobs, did a fine presentation with the material he had, and in fact reassured us that the company’s talent runs deep. But there weren’t any exciting product introductions, and it already made me miss Steve’s black turtleneck and incredible presentation style. It made me think about what Steve Jobs has done, the competition he was up against, and how, with so many companies in dire straights, we can hope for similar stories in the near future.

I will never forget listening to digital music for the first time. The Bach harpsichord music was the most incredible sound I'd ever heard, and I spent half of the show (CES) inside a pod in the Sony booth, holding a sample of a silver "compact disc" and listening to the same loop over and over in awe. I also remember being in Tokyo, standing in the middle of the Ginza and having the same experience with digital TV. Sony had a demonstration area right in the center, a tent with a movie playing on the first giant HDTV. Once again, the clarity of digitization was amazing, overwhelming when viewed from an analog world. Sony was first with both technologies and their marketing, and at that time the brand was synonymous with “the best”.

Sony was Trinitron, it was Walkman, and it was the best quality with beautiful design at the highest prices. They were the company who made us associate Japan with electronics instead of RCA. I do still have a Sony laptop (the only Sony item in the house), but this week’s news of their corporate upheaval during the biggest electronic trade shows of the year make me think about how things change.

In a move similar to Apple’s initial failures, Sony missed the logical segue of the Walkman to digital music (although people forget the conflicts of interest here with the Sony Music division and DRM). They missed again with PlayStation (to Microsoft, whose incredible lead in gaming is for another post). They forced us to use Memory Sticks in order to stay in their orbit, even when they started to lose footing. And now they are no longer the name to beat.

Because Steve Jobs took Apple, the company who missed their clear early OS advantage by refusing to license it to hardware manufacturers at the wrong time, and turned it around. They were on the brink of failure. Even with the odds stacked heavily against it, Apple took over Sony’s reign. He reinvented the company, the vision, and the entire entertainment industry. Everybody liked him (and the underdog status vs Microsoft), the music companies were willing to make deals with him, the design of the products were gorgeous and simple and to this day, command higher prices. Apple is a great interest intersection in this family, although we won’t know for years what permanent ear buds do to a kid’s hearing.

What a great success story. With fantastic vision and nimble leadership, Apple took the place of the incumbent (Sony). We could use a story like that right now. It would be great to see it happen to automakers in this country, but of course the story there is far more complicated. And for many reasons, it doesn’t look like Steve Jobs will be available to do it any time soon.

And Just One More Thing. I hope you are not too sick Steve.

The Universal Language?

In a recent paper my son wrote for school, he mentioned Twitter. Nobody knew what it was. In a class of 18 - 20 year old upcoming Digital Media experts (his major), nobody knew what Twitter was. The reason? The same reason teens rarely update their “status” on their Facebook page, unless they are going away or studying for exams and need to let friends know about a potential absence. “It’s pointless, why do we have to let people know what we’re doing all the time?” If they want to communicate specifically, they use text messaging.

What about Seesmic, FriendFeed, or Twitter? The 2008 Crunchie nominees? No, the other sites they visit focus on entertainment. Sites like Hulu and YouTube. What about Animoto? No, they can post pictures on Facebook or videos on YouTube. Content, vs. utility, is still king to them. The other sites they visit are very specific and oriented toward their special interests. And on those sites, there are micro-communities where they use a screen name to post comments. Or they might spend time on an MMO (online game) where they communicate using screen names and short one line phrases focused on the game. I will let them talk about it in subsequent posts.

The generation we brought up to BE CAREFUL on the Internet actually listened. If I think of all the time we all spent warning them not to give out personal information on line, it is easy to see why this is learned behavior. There were books and special evenings at the schools about internet safety for uninformed parents. This seems unanimous among many kids their age, who think using a real name (with the exception of Facebook, which they feel is an insulated community of their school or other invited friends) is just plain unnecessary.

We. as adults, create frameworks and integration tools to connect them. We visit Twitter, sometimes via FriendFeed, identi.ca, or ping.fm. More and more ways to shout out our names, but also to create think tanks in the process. Products we need evolve from entrepreneurial minds using the infrastructure created, applications based on how effectively the information is delivered (Howard's StockTwits) or, conversely, to overcome its handicaps (Summize). Collaboration sites, for thinking or for working, are where we go. There was a great post by @fredwilson about Mark Zuckerberg (founder of Facebook) when he was at Harvard. Mark sent around a study sheet to his classmates looking for answers to an upcoming quiz he hadn't prepared for. He figured out collaboration at an early age.

Fred's post was really about going "Public", which is interesting because I still do not see college kids doing it yet. Adults our age did not have the "be careful" stigma associated with "Public", our parents did not attend workshops on computer safety to teach us. The technology will be easily learned by most of the upcoming point and click generation. What may take more time to overcome are the years of learned trepidation. I think the conversion to what we consider social media, beyond Facebook where they feel safe, may take some time. Or perhaps future social media will adapt.